I see no reason to think anything will be different from the last time around. It isn't military leaders versus civilian leaders. It's the lack of credible civilian institutions that drives Pakistani history. Until those arise as a check and balance to the military being the only credible institution, it really does not matter whether it is Nawaz Sharif or anyone else. Rule of law is only feasible when there is a balance of power in the institutional landscape. If one institution pwns a system, the law is always reduced to a farce.

He seems par for the course as a politician, somewhere between saint and sinner. I liked him rather better than Benazir Bhutto. But even if he were a perfect saint, it wouldn't matter, because without strong institutions where one can bank the gains made by strong individuals, you end up with a two-steps-forward-one-step-back progress model.

The country has some unfortunate conditions that makes the emergence of such institutions difficult. But one big institutional success comparable to say Grameen Bank in Bangladesh could turn the tide. I am moderately hopeful.