Question
What are the odds that by 2100, India will have split into multiple countries, given that India is a very diverse country, both geographically & culturally?
Answer
I'd put it at 20-25% at least. Possibly more, depending on how politics evolves.
The three biggest tectonic forces are:
The biggest consequence of the first force is that proportional representation in Parliament comes under stress as the worst performing states in terms of development indices get more power.
People who are citing all those (good) reasons for cohesion and continued unity as a nation state are forgetting that India has been politically united only about 25% of the time in its history (a hundred odd years each during Mauryan, Gupta, Mughal and British times respectively). Just going by that alone (500/3000 or so of the last 3000 years), there is reason to suspect that there is no decisive force for unity. And don't forget that there have been a dozen major secession movements in the last 30 years.
Perhaps the biggest reason to assume that a breakup will not occur is actually the Internet. It is making political, social and economic organization on the lines of nation states much less critical.
If there isn't an actual breakup, there will likely be a major renegotiation of the nature of the state, despite the hard-to-amend nature of the constitution (IIRC, it takes 2/3 or 75% of the Lok Sabha vote to amend it). Among the things that might need to change are the balance of power between cities, states and the Union. It would be healthy to move towards a far more federated structure than we have at present.The country is far more diverse than the United States, but has a stronger union-over-states balance, which does not make sense.
India today is politically almost like pre-Civil War America. There are lots of major subterranean tensions that need to be resolved, and some of them might create secession forces. The big difference is that India shares borders with two other large countries: one getting stronger and more cohesive (China) and one on the brink of breakdown (Pakistan). Not to mention one that might get submerged by global warming. These external threats may help create internal cohesion.
The three biggest tectonic forces are:
- Population stability in parts of the south and west and continuing growth, without corresponding economic growth and development, in the north.
- Increasing gender disparity in parts of the north and northwest, due to female infanticide etc.
- The continuing unresolved political tension around caste (despite the rapid rise of regional politicians from the oppressed classes and castes).
The biggest consequence of the first force is that proportional representation in Parliament comes under stress as the worst performing states in terms of development indices get more power.
People who are citing all those (good) reasons for cohesion and continued unity as a nation state are forgetting that India has been politically united only about 25% of the time in its history (a hundred odd years each during Mauryan, Gupta, Mughal and British times respectively). Just going by that alone (500/3000 or so of the last 3000 years), there is reason to suspect that there is no decisive force for unity. And don't forget that there have been a dozen major secession movements in the last 30 years.
Perhaps the biggest reason to assume that a breakup will not occur is actually the Internet. It is making political, social and economic organization on the lines of nation states much less critical.
If there isn't an actual breakup, there will likely be a major renegotiation of the nature of the state, despite the hard-to-amend nature of the constitution (IIRC, it takes 2/3 or 75% of the Lok Sabha vote to amend it). Among the things that might need to change are the balance of power between cities, states and the Union. It would be healthy to move towards a far more federated structure than we have at present.The country is far more diverse than the United States, but has a stronger union-over-states balance, which does not make sense.
India today is politically almost like pre-Civil War America. There are lots of major subterranean tensions that need to be resolved, and some of them might create secession forces. The big difference is that India shares borders with two other large countries: one getting stronger and more cohesive (China) and one on the brink of breakdown (Pakistan). Not to mention one that might get submerged by global warming. These external threats may help create internal cohesion.