Question
What are the similarities and differences between the current state of technology (2012) and the Dot-Com bubble (1995-2000)?
Answer
I caught a teeny piece of the action last time around, and a slightly larger piece this time. Nothing financially significant either time, but enough to get me a good spectator view of the bigger game both times.
I'd guess more people were in the game last time around since the technical barriers to entry were much lower. But I could be wrong because the activity is far more widely distributed this time, fed by a digital native Gen Y cohort. Demographic stats would be interesting.
Paradoxically, I think there is a far lower median amount of cash floating around per capita, despite the higher barrier to entry. The mean may be about the same due to late stage silliness, leaving a starved middle and a long rent-and-ramen tail.
The insanity is much more muted this time. The worst of this round (like Groupon) is still better than the average of the last round in terms of core value.
Partly this could be because a first generation of mature Internet companies exists now, which helps moderate the craziness. People overall understand Internet economics 100x better (but still only 1/100 th as well as needed).
This is somewhat evident in the lower amount of cynical humor circulating this time. There is less outright ludicrous stuff to laugh at. The dangers are subtler and resemble mainstream business cycles more.
What hasn't changed is the amount of self-important posturing, money-status games etc. Human nature is timeless I suppose.
Need more popcorn.
I'd guess more people were in the game last time around since the technical barriers to entry were much lower. But I could be wrong because the activity is far more widely distributed this time, fed by a digital native Gen Y cohort. Demographic stats would be interesting.
Paradoxically, I think there is a far lower median amount of cash floating around per capita, despite the higher barrier to entry. The mean may be about the same due to late stage silliness, leaving a starved middle and a long rent-and-ramen tail.
The insanity is much more muted this time. The worst of this round (like Groupon) is still better than the average of the last round in terms of core value.
Partly this could be because a first generation of mature Internet companies exists now, which helps moderate the craziness. People overall understand Internet economics 100x better (but still only 1/100 th as well as needed).
This is somewhat evident in the lower amount of cynical humor circulating this time. There is less outright ludicrous stuff to laugh at. The dangers are subtler and resemble mainstream business cycles more.
What hasn't changed is the amount of self-important posturing, money-status games etc. Human nature is timeless I suppose.
Need more popcorn.