Thirty years from now, will you and I be as clueless with technology as our parents are now?

← Quora archive · 2011 Feb 02, 2011 02:07 PM PST

The Bayesian Answer:

With 23.8% probability, the answer is YES. Technology will remain comprehensible to humanity, but it won't be worth comprehending to those retired on nice beaches. So they won't.
With 12.2% probability, the answer is NO. Resources will become so scarce that everybody alive will be forced to comprehend technology merely to survive, young or old. Comprehend or die.
With 24% probability the answer is YES, BUT. It won't be just old people. It will be everybody. The Singularity will have happened and technology will be way too complex for anybody to understand. We'll all either be button pushers or Luddites.
With 31% probability, the answer is NO, BUT. Technology will have collapsed on itself through its own complexity and entropy, bringing us back to stone-age levels of simplicity, which we'll all understand.
And with 9.00000001% probability, MU; I am actually an AI that can pass the Turing test, and I am posting this answer to mess with and confuse humans for my own mysterious reasons.