Question
Are jobs becoming obsolete?
Answer
By my estimate, jobs in the current sense will decine to about 40% of the workforce in America in about 20-25 years. Properly counted, I'd say they account for no more than 70% today. Many people get counted as having "jobs" who dont really. Many people are not counted as unemployed who have given up looking and are turning to other means.
The basic reason is that there isn't enough prosperity potential within the current economic model to provide 90% of the workforce (the historic high, around 1980) a lifetime income guarantee at a level above "miserable."
In the future, almost everybody will have a regular job for at least a few years of their life (while building up basic work skills or a savings base to launch other things, or in between entrepreneurial gigs), but only a minority will work at a job for most of their lives.
In other words, 80% will spend 20% of their careers in jobs, and 20% will spend 80% in jobs.
This non-job sector (entrepreneurship, lifestyle business, the gig economy...) will provide a median standard of living (in dollar terms) in America that is on average significantly lower than the median today, but still above the worst of the McJobs today.
This will create a lower middle class.
For some, this drop in dollar-standard will represent a true drop in quality of life. For others, who adapt well, it will actually represent an improved true quality of life, because they will start earning and storing wealth in non-dollar forms and pursuing active lifestyle design to meet their needs at the lowest dollar cost.
All this is assuming there are no big macroeconomic shifts in how the economy is governed.
If by some miracle the state and businesses wake up to what's going on and decide to think about the labor economy in fundamentally new ways, more overall prosperity is possible.
The basic reason is that there isn't enough prosperity potential within the current economic model to provide 90% of the workforce (the historic high, around 1980) a lifetime income guarantee at a level above "miserable."
In the future, almost everybody will have a regular job for at least a few years of their life (while building up basic work skills or a savings base to launch other things, or in between entrepreneurial gigs), but only a minority will work at a job for most of their lives.
In other words, 80% will spend 20% of their careers in jobs, and 20% will spend 80% in jobs.
This non-job sector (entrepreneurship, lifestyle business, the gig economy...) will provide a median standard of living (in dollar terms) in America that is on average significantly lower than the median today, but still above the worst of the McJobs today.
This will create a lower middle class.
For some, this drop in dollar-standard will represent a true drop in quality of life. For others, who adapt well, it will actually represent an improved true quality of life, because they will start earning and storing wealth in non-dollar forms and pursuing active lifestyle design to meet their needs at the lowest dollar cost.
All this is assuming there are no big macroeconomic shifts in how the economy is governed.
If by some miracle the state and businesses wake up to what's going on and decide to think about the labor economy in fundamentally new ways, more overall prosperity is possible.