Strategic Decision Theory

The intersection of rationality, timing, and strategic reasoning—examining how individuals and agents make decisions under uncertainty, cognitive constraint, and adversarial or game-theoretic conditions.

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Posts (353)

2024-05-24 Going Sessile
2024-05-14 Arbitrariness Costs
2024-05-12 Decision Brownouts
2024-03-18 Harberger Tax
2024-03-05 Civilizational Functionalism
2024-02-23 Economics Memes
2024-02-14 Mediocratopia: 13
2024-02-01 The Bartleby Trough
2023-07-06 The Resourceful Life
2022-09-16 ε/δ Thinking
2022-08-10 Narrative Slipstream Effects
2022-07-07 Virtue Degeneracy
2022-03-30 Fermi Estimates and Dyson Designs
2022-01-06 Random Acts of X
2021-12-06 Thinking in OODA Loops
2021-10-20 Mediocratopia: 12
2021-09-20 Mediocratopia: 11
2021-06-24 Storytelling -- Matthew Dicks
2021-06-17 Storytelling -- Mamet's Conflict Airing Theory
2021-04-08 Here's why we don't understand heavier-than-air flight
2021-02-25 Here's why we don't understand what electricity is
2021-02-16 Storytelling -- Harmon vs. McKee
2020-12-02 Pascal's Market
2020-09-30 Notes: The Marshall Plan by Benn Steil
2020-09-03 Wittgenstein's Revenge
2020-08-13 Clockmaking: 1
2020-02-10 MJD 58,889
2020-01-15 Predictable Identities 24: Anti-Identity
2020-01-07 MJD 58,855
2020-01-06 MJD 58,854
2019-12-25 Predictable Identities: 23 - The Self
2019-11-20 Predictable Identities: 21 - Enlightenment
2019-11-13 Mediocratopia: 9
2019-11-06 Predictable Identities: 20 - Self and Other Labeling
2019-10-02 Predictable Identities: 18 - Self-consistency
2019-09-23 Domestic Cozy: 8
2019-09-16 Mediocratopia: 8
2019-08-28 Predictable Identities: 16 - Newcomblike, Part II
2019-08-14 Predictable Identities: 15 - Newcomblike, Part I
2019-08-01 Mediocratopia: 7
2019-07-24 Predictable Identities: 14 - Frameworks are Fake
2019-07-16 Mediocratopia: 6
2019-07-10 Predictable Identities: 13 - Totalizing Ideologies
2019-06-26 Predictable Identities: 12 - Fear, Myths, and the Outgroup, Part II
2019-06-10 Mediocratopia: 5
2019-05-22 Predictable Identities: 10 - Big Updates
2019-05-06 Domestic Cozy: 4
2019-04-24 Predictable Identities: 7 - Weirdness Budget
2019-04-17 Predictable Identities: 8 – Roles People Play
2019-04-15 Mediocratopia: 4
2019-04-01 Weirding Diary: 6
2019-03-20 Predictable Identities: 5 - Outgroup Homogeneity
2019-03-13 Predictable Identities: 4 - Stereotypes
2019-03-12 Weirding Diary: 5
2019-03-10 Predictable Identities: 3 - Prisoner's Dilemma
2019-03-07 Mediocratopia: 3
2019-02-08 Mediocratopia: 1
2019-01-24 Weirding Diary: 1
2019-01-17 Stack Luck
2018-11-28 The Digital Maginot Line
2018-11-02 Treasure Hunting
2018-08-30 How Do You Value a Human Being?
2018-08-23 Flying Blind into the Anthropocene
2018-07-19 Quiver Doodles
2018-07-13 Hedonic Audit
2018-06-14 Chekov's Gun and the Principle of Sufficient Reason
2018-06-12 The Well-Being Machine
2018-05-10 Notes on Doing Things
2018-04-24 Survival of the Mediocre Mediocre
2018-03-13 Justifiable AI
2018-02-15 Make Your Own Rules
2018-02-08 Justice Fantasies
2018-01-30 The Elephant in the Brain
2018-01-18 The Unapologetic Case For Bullshit
2017-12-14 A Glitch in the Theocratic Matrix
2017-11-28 The Leaning Tower of Morality
2017-11-09 CEOs Don't Steer
2017-09-26 Common Sense Eats Common Talk
2017-09-07 The World As If
2017-08-29 Winning Is for Losers
2017-08-03 Body Pleasure
2017-07-26 On Being Nosey
2017-07-06 The Power of Pettiness
2017-06-15 How I Hired Your Mother
2017-04-18 Entrepreneurship is Metaphysical Labor
2017-04-11 Zorba, Spock, or Voldemort?
2017-03-14 Sanity on the Weird Timeline
2017-03-07 Sulking Through a Subprime Presidency
2017-02-28 A Brief History of Existential Terror
2017-02-23 The Strategy of No Strategy
2017-02-21 Prescientific Organizational Theory
2017-02-14 Caring and Reality
2016-12-08 The Strategy of (Subversive) Conflict
2016-11-17 Paradox and the Origins of Civilisation
2016-10-19 The Future of Compromise
2016-09-29 Overpowered Metrics Eat Underspecified Goals
2016-09-27 Mapping Organizational Realities
2016-09-07 Startups, Secrets, and Abductive Reasoning
2016-07-07 The Systems of the World
2016-06-09 Goodhart's Law and Why Measurement is Hard
2016-05-05 Dares, Costly Signals, and Psychopaths
2016-04-21 A Framework of Experimental Habit Formation
2016-03-31 Human-Complete Problems
2016-03-24 The Holy Grail of Self-Improvement
2016-02-11 Minimum Viable Superorganism
2016-02-04 Free Money
2016-02-02 Podcasts with Longform and Farnam Street
2015-11-05 Ritual Epistemology
2015-07-16 Cooperative Ignorance
2015-06-18 The Boydian Dialectic
2015-04-15 The Capitalist's Zombie
2015-03-12 The Art of Agile Leadership
2015-02-24 Colin Dickey: Tempo Shifts
2015-02-18 A Dent in the Universe
2014-12-18 Learning from Crashes
2014-12-11 Striving, Surviving, Suffering and Slacking
2014-12-02 The Future of Tipping
2014-11-20 Learning to Fly by Missing the Ground
2014-11-16 When Monitoring a Behavior Makes it Worse
2014-11-05 Don't Surround Yourself With Smarter People
2014-10-21 Playing Games to Leave Games
2014-10-12 I Will Not Rest Until...
2014-09-30 The Political Hangover of Prohibition
2014-09-24 The Rhythms of Information: Flow-Pacing and Spacetime
2014-09-09 Geopolitics for Individuals
2014-09-03 How to Fall Off the Wagon
2014-09-02 When is a Year not a Year?
2014-08-26 The Creation and Destruction of Habits
2014-08-20 The Veil of Scale
2014-08-12 The Economics of Pricelessness
2014-08-05 The Four Seasons of Lifehacking
2014-07-17 How Different Cultures Understand Time
2014-07-09 Effort Shock and Reward Shock
2014-06-25 Portals and Flags
2014-06-16 Time, Money and Bandwidth
2014-06-11 The Deliberate Practice of Disruption
2014-06-05 The Rumsfeld Behavioral Landscape
2014-05-20 The Logic of Uberreaction
2014-05-19 Frustration Effects and Curse of Optimality
2014-05-15 Power Gradients and Spherical Cows
2014-05-10 Two Examples of Narrative Time
2014-05-08 Science! and Other Off-the-Wall Études
2014-04-24 Product-Driven versus Customer-Driven
2014-03-10 Reboot Travel vs. Pause Travel
2014-02-24 Packaging-Heavy Projects
2014-02-20 The Cactus and the Weasel
2014-02-12 From Cognitive Biases to Institutional Decay
2014-02-10 Running Lean, Running Fat
2014-02-07 An Information Age Glossary
2014-01-28 Technical Debt of the West
2014-01-27 Discovery-Heavy Projects
2014-01-13 When Finishing is Easier than Starting
2013-12-16 Maintenance Thinking
2013-12-09 The Three Clocks of Trial and Error
2013-11-13 The Gooseberry Fallacy
2013-11-11 Is Decision-Making Skill Trainable?
2013-10-24 On Lifestyle Rigidity
2013-10-18 Frictional and Structural Unknowns
2013-10-18 The Government Within
2013-10-02 Truth in Consulting
2013-07-31 The Quality of Life
2013-07-10 You Are Not an Artisan
2013-07-01 Coincidences and Correlations
2013-06-24 Lagrangian and Eulerian Decision-Making
2013-06-19 War and Nonhuman Agency
2013-05-14 Deliberate Practice versus Immersion
2013-05-01 The Economics of Social Status
2013-04-08 Overtake on the Turn, Overwhelm on the Straight
2013-03-26 Allowing Personality to Flow
2013-03-18 How Many Steps Do You Really Look Ahead?
2013-03-13 The Dead-Curious Cat and the Joyless Immortal
2013-03-11 Tempo Interview on 'Smart People Podcast'
2013-03-05 Honesty and the Human Body
2013-02-28 The National Day of Unplugging
2013-02-13 Resilient Like a Fox
2013-01-31 Stone-Soup for the Capitalist's Soul
2013-01-17 Data is Eating Clocks
2012-12-30 Roundup of 2012 Tempoblog Posts
2012-12-08 Should You Count Near-Misses as Successes or Failures?
2012-11-27 Patterns of Refactored Agency
2012-11-23 Talk on Kool Aid, VUCA Discussion, Tuesday Nov 27 at USC (Los Angeles)
2012-11-14 Jason Ho on Cultivating a Jiu-Jitsu Mindset
2012-10-29 The Examined Life
2012-10-15 Economies of Scale, Economies of Scope
2012-10-02 Annealing the Tactical Pattern Stack
2012-09-20 Money as Pain Relief
2012-09-17 Demystification versus Understanding
2012-08-30 The Varieties of Scientific Experience
2012-08-13 Breakout Moves and Exponential Outcomes
2012-07-24 Happily Almost Ever After: Towards a Romantic Account of Détente
2012-07-16 Positioning Moves versus Melee Moves
2012-07-13 The Generalized Hawthorne Effect
2012-07-09 Stress Failures versus Decay Failures
2012-07-02 Not Important, Not Urgent
2012-06-25 Fertile Variables and Rich Moves
2012-06-18 Analysis-Paralysis and The Sensemaking Trap
2012-06-13 Getting Ahead, Getting Along, Getting Away
2012-06-11 Appreciative versus Manipulative Mental Models
2012-06-04 Time Lensing
2012-05-28 Forged Groups
2012-05-21 The Daily Ugly
2012-05-14 How Life Imitates Chess by Garry Kasparov
2012-04-30 The 6-Hour Maker-Manager Work Day
2012-04-26 Thinking in a Foreign Language
2012-04-16 Hacking Grand Narratives
2012-04-10 Trigger Narratives and the Nuclear Option
2012-03-29 Lawyer Mind, Judge Mind
2012-03-26 The Tempo of Code
2012-03-19 The Fundamentals of Calendar Hacking
2012-03-09 Routine, but Cannot be Automated
2012-03-01 The Second Most Important Archetype in your Life
2012-02-13 Motifs, Mascots and Muses at Refactor Camp, 2012
2012-02-08 The Tempo Glossary
2012-01-28 Does Culture Eat Strategy for Lunch?
2012-01-19 Steer, Ready, Fire
2012-01-04 Squeakastination: The Opposite of Procrastination
2011-12-22 Tempo: Year One
2011-12-21 Complete 2011 Roundup
2011-12-08 Acting Dead, Trading Up and Leaving the Middle Class
2011-12-07 What Really Happened Aboard Air France 447
2011-11-29 The Pomodoro Technique
2011-11-21 The Towers of Priority
2011-11-21 Tempo Now Available on Kindle
2011-11-07 Quandary: Seattle WA
2011-11-02 A Pilgrimage through Stagnation and Acceleration
2011-10-25 Thrust, Drag and the 10x Effect
2011-10-19 The Quest for Immortality
2011-10-14 The Gervais Principle V: Heads I Win, Tails You Lose
2011-10-13 Tempo Review on BoingBoing by Cory Doctorow
2011-09-23 The Milo Criterion
2011-09-22 Forgivable Sloppiness: The Art of Epoch-Driven Time Management
2011-09-08 Fixing the Game by Roger L. Martin
2011-09-07 Tempo goes to Burning Man
2011-08-31 Bandwagon Timing verus Biding Your Time
2011-08-26 The Scientific Sensibility
2011-08-24 New Research on Decision Fatigue
2011-08-19 The Calculus of Grit
2011-08-17 Daemons and the Mindful Learning Curve
2011-08-10 A Proposed Grand Narrative for the History of Debt
2011-07-24 Chet Richards' Review of Tempo on Fabius Maximus
2011-07-22 Tempo and OODA: The Backstory
2011-07-13 Storytelling for Problem-Solving
2011-07-07 The End of the Parade
2011-06-24 Kindle Edition Status, Glossary, Global Availability, Road Trip Contd.
2011-06-03 Towards Thick Strategy Narratives
2011-06-02 The Las Vegas Rules I: The Slightly Malevolent Universe
2011-05-31 Review at Zenpundit.com
2011-05-20 \"Ready, Fire, Aim,\" with Wild Bill
2011-05-18 How Clock Time Replaced Narrative Time
2011-05-17 On Rest Stops 2.0
2011-05-16 Startup Deathwatch in Memphis
2011-05-16 Rabble Rouser: Seattle WA
2011-05-16 Strategies, Counter-examples and the UnAha! Experience
2011-05-15 On Ritual Time
2011-05-14 Sexual Personae by Camille Paglia
2011-05-12 Functional Fixedness and Kata Learning
2011-05-12 Freytag Staircases in Nashville
2011-05-11 The Car/Truck Ratio
2011-05-09 Week 2: Ann Arbor, Nashville, Atlanta, New Orleans
2011-05-09 Week 2: Ann Arbor, Nashville, Atlanta, New Orleans
2011-05-09 Time Travel for Ghosts
2011-05-08 Darwin, Some Rationalists and the Joker
2011-05-08 Peak Oil and the Tempo of the Earth
2011-05-07 Talking Temporal Illegibility in Montreal
2011-05-04 The One Way of the Beginner
2011-05-04 Haircuts and the Guy Clock
2011-05-04 An Evening of Pace, Pace, Lead with Chuck
2011-05-03 Island Time vs. Mainland Time
2011-05-03 The Tempo of Food
2011-05-03 A Moment of Silence with John Boyd
2011-04-28 The Tempo Road Trip
2011-04-21 The Tempo Road Trip
2011-04-07 Extroverts, Introverts, Aspies and Codies
2011-03-31 Tempo Stealth Edition
2011-01-19 Boundary Condition Thinking
2011-01-06 The Gollum Effect
2011-01-01 How Leveraged are Your Resolutions?
2010-12-13 Update on Tempo
2010-11-16 What Entrepreneurs Can Learn from the Poor
2010-10-14 The Gervais Principle IV: Wonderful Human Beings
2010-10-07 How Good Becomes the Enemy of Great
2010-09-28 Learning from One Data Point
2010-09-14 Cricket as Metaphor
2010-09-08 King Gustavus' Folly: The Story of the Vasa
2010-08-03 Down with Innovation, Up with Imitation!
2010-07-28 Wanted: A Book Cover Designer for \"Tempo\"
2010-07-07 Becalmed in the Summer Doldrums
2010-06-30 The Philosopher's Abacus
2010-06-24 WOM, Broadcast and the Classical Marketing Contract
2010-05-19 Intellectual Gluttony
2010-04-28 Be Slightly Evil
2010-04-08 Against the Gods by Peter Bernstein
2010-03-13 Linchpin by Seth Godin, and 8 Other Short Book Reviews
2010-03-01 The Expedient, Desirable Product
2010-02-17 Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Sailor
2010-02-09 Bright-Sided by Barbara Ehrenreich
2010-01-09 Drive by Dan Pink
2009-12-22 How to Make New Year's Calibrations (Rerun)
2009-11-21 Morality, Compassion and the Sociopath
2009-11-11 The Gervais Principle II: Posturetalk, Powertalk, Babytalk and Gametalk
2009-10-07 The Gervais Principle, Or The Office According to "The Office"
2009-10-02 A Brewing Storm in Psychology
2009-09-28 The Tao of Frogger
2009-09-23 The Allegory of the Stage
2009-09-14 Knowing and Caring
2009-09-09 Time and Money: Separated at Birth?
2009-09-03 The Manager on Labor Day
2009-08-31 How to Think Like Hercule Poirot
2009-08-16 The Tragicomic Exasperations of Expertise
2009-08-12 Two Manipulative Ways to Close Conversations
2009-08-03 The Brain of the World
2009-06-22 Neurotic Leaders, Paternalistic Managers and Self-Absorbed Workers
2009-06-15 Marketing, Innovation and the Creation of Customers
2009-05-28 The Hunter-Gatherer Theory of Markets and Shopping
2009-04-20 How to Draw and Judge Quadrant Diagrams
2009-03-02 Fools and their Money Metaphors
2009-02-03 Who: The A Method for Hiring by Smart and Street
2008-12-15 How to Make New Year's Calibrations
2008-12-03 Brain Rules by John Medina
2008-11-23 The Ideology of the Organization Man
2008-10-31 My First Book, A Board Game and 'Cloudworker' on the NYT
2008-10-16 Mastering the Hype Cycle by Fenn and Raskino
2008-10-07 The Headcount Myth and the Value of Overbooking
2008-09-25 Crowdsourcing and The Wisdom of the Crowds
2008-09-18 Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely
2008-09-04 Maslow for Market Segmentation
2008-09-01 The Bloody-Minded Pleasures of Engineering
2008-08-17 The Impossibility Triangle in Talent Management
2008-07-23 Acceleration as Strategy, Urgency as Doctrine
2008-07-13 Work-Life Chemistry and How to Measure It
2008-06-22 Theory W, Theory X and Theory Y
2008-06-20 The Three-Leaps-of-Faith Rule
2008-06-09 How Geniuses Think
2008-05-11 What Got You Here Won't Get You There by Marshall Goldsmith
2008-04-23 Ronald Coase and Salvation from Anthropological Economics
2008-04-17 The Other Games Indians Play
2008-03-16 Bargaining with your Right Brain
2008-03-05 The UnAha! Experience
2008-02-11 Book Review and Summary: Strategic Intuition
2008-01-31 The Broken Brain Books
2008-01-24 How to Pick Business and Self-Improvement Books
2008-01-14 Coarse Actions, Fine Actions
2007-12-05 The Fine Art of Opportunism
2007-11-14 How to be an Idea Person
2007-11-05 The Age of Speed by Vince Poscente
2007-09-24 Strategy, Tactics, Operations and Doctrine: A decision-language tutorial
2007-09-06 Seth Godin's Dip and Multi-armed Bandits
2007-08-27 Dan Pink, Howard Gardner and the Da Vinci Mind
2007-08-13 The Parrot
2007-08-06 Book Review: Blue Ocean Strategy
2007-07-22 Book Review: Competing on Analytics
2007-07-14 The 15 Laws of Meeting Power
2007-06-14 Concepts and Prototypes